New Orleans sits below sea level — a geological fact that was managed for decades by a levee system built and maintained by the Army Corps of Engineers. After Hurricane Betsy flooded the Lower Ninth Ward in 1965, Congress authorized a comprehensive levee improvement project. The project was never completed. Budget cuts during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s left critical sections of the levee system below the design specifications needed to withstand a Category 3 hurricane, which was the standard the project was meant to achieve.
In 2001, FEMA ranked a major hurricane striking New Orleans as one of the three most likely catastrophic disasters facing the United States — alongside a terrorist attack on New York and a major earthquake in San Francisco. In 2004, a federal exercise called Hurricane Pam simulated exactly the scenario that occurred in 2005: a major hurricane, levee failures, mass flooding. The simulation predicted that over 60,000 people would die and over 1 million would be displaced. The recommendations from that exercise had not been implemented when Katrina struck 13 months later.
The levee sections that failed — the 17th Street Canal, the London Avenue Canal, and the Industrial Canal near the Lower Ninth Ward — failed not because they were overtopped by storm surge but because they were structurally inadequate. The Army Corps of Engineers later acknowledged this in a 2006 report. The levees failed before the water reached their design height. This was an engineering failure, not a natural disaster.